The states shifting demographics had given Democrats hope, as margins at the top of the ticket have shrunk in recent years. Indiana shares this trend with. The States Of the Blue Wall. At one time we truly were the "United" States of America, but now we have been split into two opposing camps that deeply hate one another. To the extent that planning to move may require at least three of those steps, not very many respondents are close to moving. 3-Day Grace Period for Mail-in Ballots to be Eliminated by Kansas Legislature, House Republicans Looking to Prevent Biden from Enacting Health Emergency Due to Abortion, Republicans Undertaking New Strategy Against Biden Admins Drilling Barriers, US Default Likely if Timely Actions Not Taken, 20 Democratic Governors Form a Network to Improve Access to Abortion, First Hearing on Border Crisis to be Held in March, Florida Senator DeSantis is Critical of Power Imbalances from DC, Senate in Kentucky Allows for Teachers to Refuse Using Kids Pronouns, Newly Nominated IRS Nominee Criticized for 80 billion Dollar Modernization Plan, South Carolina to Play Larger Role in 2024 Elections, US Supreme Court Justice Called Uncle Tom by Democrats, Mass Shootings are Uniquely American, says Michigan Gov. Aug. 3, 2021, at 4:50 p.m. States to Watch in the 2022 Midterms. (Podhorzer also offers a slightly different grouping of the states that reflects the more recent trend in which Virginia has voted like a blue state at the presidential level, and Arizona and Georgia have moved from red to purple. Voters in Oregon are beginning to favor Christine Drazan, a former Representative in the states House and the current Republican gubernatorial candidate. Holding incumbents accountable is complicated, though, in a system where policy authority is divided across multiple layers and branches of government, and partisanship seems to be more important than actually evaluating a governors performance. An emergency declaration is a powerful tool we need to help homeless Oregonians. Follow him@davemckinney. I had a real good construction business going, but I seen a year ago that those days were over because Im a Democrat. Although Texas is on the cusp of turning blue, these same lawmakers banned abortion after about six weeks and restricted voting rights, culminating in possibly the most conservative legislative session in a generation. The one South Texas congressional seat Republicans did claim, with the victory of Monica De La Cruz, was in a district drawn in 2021 to help a Republican win. Most of the states we live in appear to be solidly Republican or Democrat. Dan] Patrick and all the others.. Tuesday night, that Democratic progress seemed to halt. This strain of pessimism extends to quality of life in your community. Approximately one-third of all respondents in the four states stated that the quality of life in their community was worse or much worse now than two years ago. With Rosalie Chiang, Sandra Oh, Ava Morse, Hyein Park. The color purple represents their multi-faceted makeup. This survey differs from others by including in the field Governor Hochul of New York and Governor Abbott of Texasas well as Californias Governor Newsom, whom most early polls have excluded. Three dozen of those days were devoted to appearances in Chicago, while 22 were downstate with three in the collar counties and five in suburban Cook. pandemic while almost all of the red states are poised to restrict abortion rights, socially conservative laws that red states have passed since 2021, in a recent paper analyzing trends in small-, may bring the greatest threats to the countrys basic stability. Virginia remains a blue state because, all things being equal, in statewide federal races, the Democratic nominee starts off with a clear advantage. In 2018, with Beto ORourke, Democratic performance improved by13.9 percentage points from the previous midterm. Although Texas is on the cusp of turning blue, these same lawmakers banned abortion after about six weeks and restricted voting rights, culminating in possibly the most conservative legislative. Get the latest. At least 90% of voters from the opposing party in each state are sticking with their partys candidate. History, in my view, offers two models. Most of the states are likely to stay red or blue after Tuesday, but a few key races are seen as toss-ups. Butthe Texas I know is Black and brown, withmore than 50% of the states population being Black, Latinoor Asian. It goes hand in hand with the kinds of political polarization and partisanship that were seeing, said journalist Lou Jacobson, senior correspondent for PolitiFact, the nonpartisan fact-checking organization. The states on this map voted for the same party for (at least) the four presidential elections prior to 2016. My work as a community organizer in Texas, a soldierand a graduate student at Harvard are just as much their achievements as they are mine. The special examines how COVID-19 and the Draconian policies imposed by Democratic governors resulted in lawlessness, failed education, and botched public health policies. A two-Democrats in the Senate, Biden-voting blue state. As the Nov. 3 election approaches, debate over which way Texas will lean has led voters to question if Texas is becoming a "purple" state.Having been strictly Republican (red) since 1976 in the presidential elections, Texas now has an increasing number of Democratic (blue) voters in the prediction polls. Take Californiaand Mississippi. Texas has started taking public donations to defray some of the $7 million it has spent on buses since April. It's time for a new direction. Population exit has become a prominent issue in blue states, including California and New York, which for years have experienced negative net migration. New York and New Jersey lost Congressional seats again, based on the 2020 Census. Ships from and sold by RAREWAVES-IMPORTS. The Blue States and the Red States are referred to as states of the U.S. whose voters predominantly choose either the Democratic Party (Blue) or Republican Party (Red) for Presidential and Senatorial Candidates. The most common activity was discussing leaving with family, followed by searching for a place to live. No presidential candidate has won it by more than five percentage points this century. Counties dont vote. Rev. When Pritzker won the governorship, he reversed the volume of county losses by Democrats. (Some red-state Republicans are even distantly echoing Calhoun in promising to nullifythat is, defyfederal laws with which they disagree.) As Jacobson, the journalist, found in his reporting for the University of Virginias Center for Politics, the trend is similar in presidential elections here. The great convergence of the mid-20th century may have been an anomaly. This is not a metaphor; it is a geographic and historical reality., To Podhorzer, the growing divisions between red and blue states represent a reversion to the lines of separation through much of the nations history. "The migrants are being used as pawns in a politically charged election, intentionally sowing chaos so the governors can say, 'You're getting a taste of your own medicine.'. In both California and New York, 1-in-5 Democratic registered voters stated that the quality of life has worsened at a time when most of their state and federal representatives are Democrats. As the nation has sorted itself into red and blue territory, places where Democrats once were competitive in state races have become more solidly Republican. This election season, Texans around the state will turn to The Texas Tribune for the information they need on voting, election results, analysis of key races and more. ), From the July/August 2021 issue: How America fractured into four parts. The MAGA movement is not stopping at the borders of the states it already controls, Podhorzer writes. This survey, implemented online by YouGov between October 11 and 26, 2022, included 5,060 respondents. STATE OF THE ECONOMYTAKING HITS AND RUNNING UP DEFICITS. The governors of the nations four largest states, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, face voters in 2022. The hardening difference between red and blue, Podhorzer maintains, empowers the 10 purple states (if you include Arizona and Georgia) to decide which of the two superpower nations values, Blue or Red, will prevail in presidential and congressional elections. It turns out Cuomo is counting on a Democratic controlled Congress to repeal the provision in President Trump's 2017 tax overhaul which capped the federal tax deduction for state and local taxes . Five of Illinois 15 least vaccinated counties are in Baileys state Senate district, state public health data show. Instead, we asked all respondents across the nation to choose, head-to-head, between Newsom and DeSantis. by Karen Brooks Harper For more information, visit www.roseinstitute.org. Sign up now to get the Washington Examiners breaking news and timely commentary delivered right to your inbox. Governors in both red and blue states have watched their approval ratings sink throughout the pandemic. The state with the most outbound migration by population was California, with more than 343,000 people leaving the state. In Stock. Many are interested in moving to a place where their neighbors would have political and policy preferences closer to their own. How are these governors and their policy agendas faring in the 2022 elections? One might think incumbents in these states should fear voter retribution at a time when many Americans are struggling. We also asked Republican respondents to choose head-to-head between DeSantis and Trump. The four governors are on track to win reelection even though a large share of their constituents are dissatisfied with recent economic and social trends. The Golden State was followed by New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. "Texas is ready to turn blue." Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean 2010 "Texas Dems are presenting the biggest challenge the state's GOP has faced in decades. Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. The increasing divergenceand antagonismbetween the red nation and the blue nation is a defining characteristic of 21st-century America. Rural Texas still rules the day. Key states with a less white electorate are now, according to Redfin: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit statewide news organization dedicated to keeping Texans informed on politics and policy issues that impact their communities. Democrats blamed Republican-appointed regulators for failing to prepare the grid for disasters. All Rights Reserved. Until Republicans figure out how to win again in Chicagos suburbs, the party and voters who support it in nearly 85% of the states counties run the risk of history repeating itself in 2022. Abbott began busing undocumented immigrants to other states last spring and has steered $4.4 billion toward his Operation Lone Star mission along the Texas-Mexico border moves that drove Democrats to accuse him of spending taxpayer money on political stunts. kmiller@cmc.edu, Kravis Center, Fourth Floor The drop-off was even more pronounced if Barack Obamas 2008 presidential win is a marker. Not only arethese laws antithetical tothe popular will of constituents, they also disproportionately harmpeople of color like my family. And those dividing lines were largely set at the nations founding, when slave states and free states forged an uneasy alliance to become one nation., Podhorzer isnt predicting another civil war, exactly. In terms of sheer volume, the Sunshine State was followed by Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, and Idaho. Among Republicans, former President Trump is the most popular, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis clearly the leading alternative. Construction equipment giant Caterpillar also announced last year that it would be relocating its headquarters from Illinois to Texas. Podhorzer, like Mason and Grumbach, believes that the MAGA movements long-term goal is to tilt the electoral rules in enough states to make winning Congress or the White House almost impossible for Democrats. That can't be good," Chishti said. Moreover, the elections may give momentum to at least two of these governorsNewsom and DeSantisto sell their states competing visions to the nation by running for president in 2024. If we have people who are in the cities and suburbs never interacting with people with a different demographic profile, and vice versa, you have people in red areas never seeing blue voters, it just further pushes the two sides away from each other, he said, and gives them less and less common ground.. The RED WAVE did not happen, Flores wrote in a fiery Tweet after her apparent defeat on Tuesday. . A closer look at election data in the state shows recent presidential and Senate wins might be breakthroughs to a new. Pritzker did so while losing 86 out of Illinois 102 counties, but that showing amounted to an improvement for Democrats over previous elections. North Carolina is probably the most likely of those to go blue in 2024. By Ava Dunwoody | Staff Writer. New York had the largest overall decline in its population share, a 0.9% drop. Predicting three states flipping blue to red, four or more Senate seats blue to red and at least 60 house seats blue to red. No state in the blue section has a law on the books banning abortion before fetal viability, while almost all of the red states are poised to restrict abortion rights if the Republican-appointed Supreme Court majority, as expected, overturns Roe v. Wade. The more ground the Democrat Party gains in the suburban areas, the more theyre able to cut loose people from the rural areas, said former Democratic U.S. Rep. Glenn Poshard, the partys 1998 nominee for governor. Disclosure: University of Houston has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. By that. That's not a new trend this year. "It would be smart for people heading into the 2022 campaign to level with their . The 16 counties Pritzker won was the most by a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Rod Blagojevichs 2006 reelection, when he raked in double that amount. Forbes magazine says the shift in population has been as much political as it has been economic. Thats the same kind of feeling that the Democrats have in Texas, that Democrats have in Utah, that you have a state that is not responsive to your needs. For example, Republicans include strong Republicans, not so strong (weak) Republicans, and independents who lean toward the Republican Party. That's one of the revealing facts in the Census Bureau's annual assessment of U.S. migration released last week. Maps: What's the Real Red and Blue Balance of State Government? Claremont, CA 91711 Competing Visions in the Nation's Largest States The governors of the nation's four largest states, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, face voters in 2022. Whats becoming clearer over time is that the Trump-era GOP is hoping to use its electoral dominance of the red states, the small-state bias in the Electoral College and the Senate, and the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court to impose its economic and social model on the entire nationwith or without majority public support. In this match-up, DeSantis barely edges out Newsom, 51-49%. Pritzkers campaign has made clear it doesnt aim to cede any of that turf next November to whatever Republican prevails in the June 28, 2022 primary, and that it hopes to build on 2018s results. AEI, a center-right think tank, said that empirical evidence suggests that domestic migration patterns in the US do reflect Americans and firms voting/moving with their feet from Democratic-controlled, high-tax, business-unfriendly, fiscally unhealthy, economically stagnant states with relatively high electricity and housing costs to Republican-controlled, lower-tax, more business-friendly, fiscally healthy and economically vibrant states with lower electricity and housing costs.. "We are at best a purple state" Millions of Americans are fleeing blue states for freer, more prosperous red states. More than half of Republicans (58%) and Democrats (55%) said they thought about moving to a state where the government better reflects their political and policy values, while 69% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans considered moving . Measured that way, the red nation houses slightly more of the countrys eligible voting population (45 percent versus 39 percent), but the blue nation contributes more of the total U.S. gross national product: 46 percent versus 40 percent. . The picture is a bit clearer for the Republicans. Blue State May Finally Turn Red, Polling Shows (ConservativeJournal.org) - The midterms are just around the corner. Wednesday, 27 July 2022 11:39 AM EDT. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott and [Lt. Gov. But the big story remains that blue states are benefiting more as the nation transitions into a high-productivity, 21st-century information economy, and red states (apart from their major metropolitan centers participating in that economy) are suffering as the powerhouse industries of the 20th centuryagriculture, manufacturing, and fossil-fuel extractiondecline. It doesnt matter if Im in Clay County, in Louisville, Ill. When we think about the United States, we make the essential error of imagining it as a single nation, a marbled mix of Red and Blue people, Podhorzer writes. Not a one-Democrat, one-Republican in the Senate state like Florida was for many years. Although Texas is on the cusp of turning blue, these same lawmakers banned abortion after about six weeks and restricted voting rights, culminating in possibly the most conservative legislative. In that year, the Republican Party was in power so the "blue states" were the states projected to go to incumbent Gerald Ford and the "red states" were projected to go to Democrat challenger Jimmy Carter. Before 2020, Arizona had voted Democratic only once in a presidential election since 1948 and Democrats had not occupied both U.S. Senate seats since 1952. Bailey was once escorted out of the Illinois House because he refused for a day to adhere to the chambers mandate that members and staff wear masks to reduce the spread of COVID-19. In a private newsletter that he writes for a small group of activists, Podhorzer recently laid out a detailed case for thinking of the two blocs as fundamentally different nations uneasily sharing the same geographic space. Jake Grumbach, a University of Washington political scientist who studies the differences among states, told me that red states, as a group, are falling behind blue states on a broad range of economic and social outcomesincluding economic productivity, family income, life expectancy, and deaths of despair from the opioid crisis and alcoholism. Republicans and Democrats are battling for control over Congress, while many states are busy holding gubernatorial elections to appoint a new state leader. While Texas Democrats still face daunting historical odds having not carried the state in a presidential electionsince 1976 or won statewide since 1994 parallels can be drawn to Arizona, another border state where Republicans hold has eroded. In addition to the battle over keeping schools open and the wearing of masks, Blue to Red takes a look at the economic policies that forced millions of people and businesses to move to states with less regulation and more freedom. Raphael Warnock, then-candidate for a U.S. Senate seat in Georgia, and Stacey Abrams, former candidate for Georgia governor . We are rapidly becoming two very different nations with two very different cultures. Our house was steeped in the melodic hum of Spanish, Cantoneseand English, hushed only by the sound of the front door slamming as my parents shuffled out for work. Now, if Glenn was to run for dog catcher against a cat, the cat would get 90% of the vote, said Spencer, who called Poshard a friend. As measured on fronts including the January 6 insurrection, the procession of Republican 2020 election deniers running for offices that would provide them with control over the 2024 electoral machinery, and the systematic advance of a Republican agenda by the Supreme Court, the underlying political question of the 2020s remains whether majority ruleand democracy as weve known itcan survive this offensive. U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican who lost the South Texas seat she had won in a special election earlier this year, blamed apathy by conservative voters as well as independents who had heavily leaned Republican in Texas polling. Well, I found out this morning, shes on a ventilator., When asked if he knows anyone who has succumbed to the illness, Spencer said, Oh yeah, I know a lot of people thats died from COVID.. For all the stresses of the last four years, the vast majority of voters in each state who identify with the incumbents party are going to remain loyal to the incumbent. He said the resolution, which sought to put up clear boundaries between red and blue Illinois, attracted the attention of separation groups. But it went nowhere and now, as a candidate for statewide office, Bailey said he no longer embraces the concept and that Illinois is better off together.. Per capita spending on elementary and secondary education is almost 50 percent higher in the blue states compared with red. Many residents of these states are considering moving elsewhere, most frequently those (such as Republicans in California and New York) who disagree with their states dominant political orientation. On the presidential preference question including both Biden and Trump, we asked all respondents to choose from a field that included both Republican and Democratic potential candidates. One-party hegemony in these states also allows their governors to build robust policy records they can wield when stepping onto the national stage. PublishedJanuary 10, 2022 at 5:35 AM CST, St. Louis Public Radio | *Note: This report was updated on November 8, 2022 to correct an insignificant typographical error. The Consumer Product Safety Commission announced it would ask the public for any information on potential hazards associ. (ConservativeJournal.org) The midterms are just around the corner. As the distance widens between the two sections, she said, there are all kinds of potential for really deep disruptions, social disruptions, that arent just about our feelings and our opinions., To Podhorzer, the growing separation means that after the period of fading distinctions, bedrock differences dating back to the countrys founding are resurfacing. No Democratic candidate for governor has won more counties than Poshard since Dan Walker won the governorship in 1972. Gov. Greg Abbott and dashing Democratic hopes that the state would turn purple. People have many reasons for migrating from one state to another, including educational or job opportunities, comparative cost of living, or family connections. Send questions and comments about this story to feedback@stlpublicradio.org. Texas opened doors for my family, but Republicans whohold all statewide offices and both U.S. Senate seats are now trying to slam the door shut, lock itand throw away the key. What about the voters from the other party? Topic: Blue state turning red (Read 11398 times) Duke David Atheist2006 Rookie Posts: 240. . Spencer, who has been involved in Democratic politics since the early 1990s, said his party affiliation has not been a helpful calling card for him in his community. Were able to build the economy for areas like southern Illinois, where, lets face it, we want to bring population into.. The Trump model, in other words, is more the South in 1850 than the South in 1950, more John Calhoun than Richard Russell. Texas 2022 Elections Republican victories show Texas is still far from turning blue Republicans continued their 28-year dominance of statewide races but fell short of their hopes for a South. It may be time to stop talking about red and blue America. The trend of population shifts from Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states only accelerated in the COVID-era of the past 2 years, according to census data and other information from companies like U-Haul. This book examines how socio-cultural, demographic . Those things are what got a lot of those voters excited, Landry said. In Abbotts first bid for governor in 2014, he won by more than 20 percentage points. In 2020, Democrats improved their margin by 3.3percentage points from 2016. The impact of these investments (as well as massive defense spending across both periods) on states that had historically spent little on public services and economic development helped steadily narrow the gap in per capita income between the states of the old Confederacy and the rest of the country from the 1930s until about 1980. A Republican from San Diego wrote, Taxes are too high in my state and the quality of life is getting worse. An independent from near Santa Barbara wrote more simply, CA is run by morons., The story is somewhat different in Texas and Florida. Despite the fact that people of color made up95% of the population growth in the past decade, the states halls of power remain almost exclusivelyin the hands of old, white male lawmakers. Find a complete list of them here. But Arizona is a blue state. All the evidence, anecdotal and empirical, is there to show that the top-of-the-ticket Democratic wins by Mark Kelly . And that leaves the country perpetually teetering on a knifes edge: The combined vote margin for either party across those purple states has been no greater than two percentage points in any of the past three presidential elections, he calculates. That kind of track record can make the state actually look geographically deep red even though Democrats currently hold every statewide elected office. Your donation keeps our trusted reporting free and accessible for all Texans and during a legislative session when lawmakers are set to tackle issues from school choice for K-12 students to school safety improvements to changes in property taxes, its critical that Texans know what lawmakers decisions mean for their futures. Her Democratic opponent and former Speaker of the House, Tina Kotek, is no longer in the lead. The results highlight just how closely the country is split when selecting between governors who have developed two radically different state-level policy visions. Many red states have experienced robust job growth (though thats been heavily concentrated in their blue-leaning metro areas). The path all four governors are taking to reelection is paved with partisanship. On its own, the blue nation would be the worlds second-largest economy, trailing only China. When someone moves to a new home in another state, they have to submit a change-of-address request, so the data are a reliable proxy for migration statistics, according to the NAR. The other two are former state Sen. Paul Schimpf, R-Waterloo, and GOP newcomer Jesse Sullivan, of Petersburg. But the party couldnt replicate it this time around, in spite of ORourke again leading the ticket as well as lingering anger over the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection by Trump supporters and a widely criticized law enforcement response to the May 24 school shooting in Uvalde. 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