Putin, specifically, does not want Ukraine to join NATO not because he has some principled disagreement related to the rule of law or something, it's because he has a might makes right model, adds Bradley Bowman, the senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a non-partisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy. The demands of the Russian government are inseparable from those of its authoritarian leader. Both Moscow and Kyiv were at the crossroads between Europe and Asia, but with different cultures based on their geography. There is talk of giving Putin an off-ramp but that completely misses the point that Putin is afraid domestic enemies might overthrow and kill him, and theres little the West can do to address those fears. We know that Putin views the collapse of the Soviet Union as a disaster, Bowman says. But he added that from the beginning, the Rus' was fragmented, occupied invaded and divided by a series of forces - including the Mongols, Poland and Lithuania. The dangerous thing that is difficult to grasp is that the West may not be able to do anything to counter the logic of gambling for resurrection. So if were in a situation where either success or failure both present horrible, dangerous situations, wed better be very careful and think very, very carefully about what we can do, and perhaps what we cannot do, and prepare accordingly. Russia has threatened to strike military targets in the UK in retaliation for sending weapons to Ukraine. A revolution in February 1917 forced Russias leader, Czar Nicholas II, from the throne. What started as a concerning situation with hopes for dialogue and diplomacy then evolved into what the Ukrainian foreign minister described as the most blatant act of aggression in Europe since World War II. Sinad Baker. So its a very difficult tightrope to walk. He also worried that Ukraine would join a military alliance with the U.S. and Europe that would be a threat to Russia. Ukraine declared itself independent of the Soviet Union in August 1991 and moved to a market economy. Armed Services Minister James Heappey told Sky News on Tuesday morning: Sergei Lavrov might also reflect that the reason there is a war in Ukraine right now is because Russia rolled over the borders of a sovereign country and started to invade their territory. Biden on Feb. 22, 2022, announced a series of sanctions against Russian financial institutions and the countrys elites. The impulse, and I certainly share it, is to punish him severely. In response Russia illegally annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea, which caused international outrage and reignited tensions between the Kremlin and the West. So I think he wants to end that independence., The Russian president, however, might not have predicted the type of strong response from the international community he saw to the buildup on the Ukraine border. Leaders in these countries depend on him, directly and indirectly, to stay in office. Thats important to recognize, says Hein Goemans, aprofessor of political scienceat the University of Rochester, who is an expert on international conflicts, territorial disputes, why countries go to war, and how wars end. Since the war began, the U.S. has imposed more than 2,700 different sanctions on Russia the highest number by a specific country, according to a tally kept by the Atlantic Council. President Vladimir Putin responded by sending in troops to annex Crimea while Russian-backed separatist rebels seized territory in eastern Ukraine in bloody fighting with the Ukrainian military. Theres also an interlocking commitment problem here: Ukraine cannot promise not to join NATO in the long term, which Russia sees as a threat to its borders. NATO is a political and military alliance that dates back to 1949 and consists of 30 member countries, including the US, Canada, the UK, France, Belgium, and many other European nations. All of this noise from Moscow about somehow their attack on Ukraine being a response to Nato aggression is just utter, utter nonsense.. He said said weapons shipments from the UK and other Nato countries would be a legitimate target for Russian attacks. Russia under the dubious claim of protecting ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers from Ukrainian persecution annexed the Crimea region of Ukraine in a move widely condemned by the international community. The Kremlins official line amid the standoff centered on Putins demands for security guarantees that would include a stop to NATOs expansion eastward and giving Russia a formal veto on Ukraine ever joining the military alliance. Putin, in other words, may be angling to return Russia to the dominant place in the European security order the position he believes it deserves. Putin invaded, and this time his plan is to take over the entire country. Putin has expressed concern over the expansion of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, into Eastern Europe and former Soviet Republics, especially Ukraine. told NBC News before the Ukraine invasion. "If Ukraine acquires weapons of mass destruction, the situation in the world and in Europe will drastically change, especially for us, for Russia," Putin said Tuesday. One by one, they lined up to tell him that the only way to stop the alleged carnage in Donbas was to recognize the separatist regions as independent. I think Ukraine has always been a sore spot for Vladimir Putin, Pomeranz says. Other reasons for action at the time could have been at play for Putin. Kyiv said a kindergarten in the territory under its control in eastern Ukraine was shelled with heavy artillery weapons by Moscow-backed separatists. He rationalized in a 2021 essay that a common history and culture which Ukrainians dispute entitled Russia to exert its influence there. He added in a statement to BBC News on Wednesday: Lavrovs trademark over the course of 15 years or so that he has been the Russian foreign secretary has been that sort of bravado. Bowman says because of this, Putin is the most persuasive billboard possible for the value of NATO membership., What weve seen from President Putin is basically to precipitate everything he says he wants to prevent, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a Feb. 16, 2022, appearance on MSNBC's Morning Joe. He says he wants NATO further away from Russia. The Russian leader was also given carte blanche to move his troops outside Russia after the countrys parliament rubber-stamped his request. It might have been the most opportune time from Putins perspective, he adds, because the country had $600 billion in foreign currency reserves and had already put significant resources into reconstructing Russias army. David Ignatius: Europe is at the edge of a possible level of violence that we just havent seen, tension along the border between Russia and Ukraine, are rolling into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, Russians and Ukrainians are one people a single whole., President Donald Trump went so far as to call Putin a "genius. Putin made it clear he felt the West had failed to meet Russias demands, but left the world hanging about what he might do next. Weeks of ominous intelligence assessments culminated in President Joe Biden making it clear that the U.S. believed Putin had made the decision to invade. Its about reconstituting the Russian empire or, short of that, a sphere of influence, or, short of that, the total neutrality of countries surrounding Russia.. Such principles include territorial integrity, which is something that Russia committed to when Ukraine gave up its nuclearweapons and became independent. NATO has only gotten more united, more solidified as a result of the threat of Russian aggression, and of course, for defensive reasons, is moving more forces closer to Russia.. Everybody in academia and most of the world thinks that nationalism is the justification and the basis of a state. The response has been swift especially at the outset. Russia had amassed up to 190,000 troops according to reports from the U.S. on Ukraines borders over the course of many months. Putins statements on Ukraines history and statehood gave rise to a view among Russia observers that he saw the country as unfinished business and wanted to follow the annexation of Crimea with further action to bring Ukraine back under Moscows influence, as he looks to reconstitute a Moscow-led Eastern bloc reminiscent of Soviet times. And since curiosity has no age limit adults, let us know what youre wondering, too. In that time, he has overseen a number of regional and international conflicts from fighting Chechen rebels in the countrys south in the late 1990s to propping up President Bashar al-Assads regime in Syria in 2015. So, if Putin doesnt achieve his goals, it becomes much more likely that hell be overthrown. In imperial Russia, some saw Ukrainians as brothers to the Russians because they shared a culture dating back to medieval times. They briefly pressured the capital Tbilisi before withdrawing to separatist regions they still occupy today. Why does Russia potentially want to invade Ukraine? In this article, a In 2014, Russia took over an area in southern Ukraine called Crimea. In order to prop up one, Putin has to prop up all. This is, after all, a president who has previously claimed that Ukraine is not a country and that Russians and Ukrainians are one people a single whole., This is, after all, a president who has previously claimed that Ukraine is not a country and that Russians and Ukrainians are one people a single whole., Some of the more blinkered Western responses to the Kremlins aggression pre-invasion claimed the current crisis is about Ukraine, and nothing more. Leaders around the world have condemned Vladimir Putin for declaring the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk independent. I think this is his crowning achievement of whatever Putinism is.. It could still be considered a war over territory but only in the sense that he wants to annex the entire Ukraine, which seems to me unlikely to succeed. The question is, which empire does he think needs reconstituting? He sees Ukrainians and Russians as brother nations and says that because Fears escalated in early 2022 as the number of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine increased. Ukraine and Russia are two countries that border each other in Eastern Europe. Artie W., age 9, Astoria, New York. They say the roots of the tension can be tied to some combination of the complicated history between the two countries, Russias ongoing tensions with NATO and the ambitions of one man: Putin. United States President Joe Biden said the world will hold Russia accountable and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledged a decisive response from the UK and its allies. Putin likely also viewed the West including the U.S., specifically as weak, Pomeranz adds, which could have impacted how much help he thought Ukraine would actually get. Western figures have largely dismissed Russias threats. It was acquired by the Kievan Rus becoming part of what is modern-day Ukraine in the medieval period, but was then conquered by the Golden Horde, the Khanata and the Ottoman Empire. We know that he has an eye on history, he's getting older, he is mindful of how he's going to look in history books and he sees himself as kind of a neo-czar who would like to reconstitute as much of the Soviet Union as possible.. Biden had said before Russias attack that he would be sending more U.S. troops to Eastern Europe to defend NATO allies such as Poland but has repeatedly stated he will not be sending U.S. troops into Ukraine. A man sits outside his destroyed building after bombings on the eastern Ukraine town of Chuguiv, on Feb. 24, 2022. The Kremlin in general views NATO expansion as a fundamental concern, according to a translated readout of a Jan. 28, 2022, call between Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron. Vanderbilt University provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation US. Do you have a question youd like an expert to answer? An attempt to conquer Ukraine could lead to a prolonged and bloody conflict. You dont want to corner Putin with sanctions to the extent that he feels that he must gambleall or nothing. There are a number of theories, principal among them is his aim to restore Russias influence in eastern Europe. To recap, on Dec. 17, the Kremlin demanded that NATO deployments return to the borders that the alliance maintained a quarter century ago, a change that would end NATOs presence in places like the Baltic countries the three nations that escaped Moscows domination just a few decades ago. He said: "Ukraines sentimental and spiritual appeal to many Russians derives from the fact that the Kievan Rus a medieval state that came into existence in the 9 th century and was centred around present-day Kiev is regarded as a joint ancestral homeland that laid the foundations for both modern Russia and Ukraine.". (ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images). Ukraines armed forces claim to have killed more than 146,000 Russian troops as of Feb. 24, 2023, according to The Kyiv Independent a figure that could not be independently verified and is much larger than some other estimates. NBC News, also attributing its figures to Western and Ukrainian officials, notes that about 13,000 Ukrainian service members have been killed. Earlier in February, Fiona Hill co-author of the best Putin biography to date, and a key former American official focused on Russia affirmed Moscows broadening focus. Ukraine is one of just a few countries in Eastern Europe that arent members of the alliance. In late 2021, military analysts helped draw the worlds attention to a concerning picture developing on Ukraines borders: Russia was massing thousands of troops around its neighbor. They tried to form their own country. Now, of course, in many of the successor republics Putin already has an elite, which is favorably inclined toward him. But the rest of the world has moved forward. And if those borders have to go, well, then there is no obvious stopping point: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Latvia, Lithuania, Estoniaall the successor republics are going to ask, Are we next? The new threats against Finland and Sweden, to warn them off from joining NATO, are also extremely concerning. Russian state media began to deliver a flood of public reports about alleged atrocities taking place in the region, which Putin has repeatedly called a genocide. International monitors categorically deny thats the case. Following weeks of tension along the border between Russia and Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putins rhetorical animus toward Ukrainian sovereignty has finally boiled over. Its virtually certain that he would be prosecuted back home and would go to jail. Naturally, our armed forces will view them as a legitimate target if those supplies get through the Ukrainian border.. In Bosnia, the current ethnic Serb member of the countrys tripartite presidency (and a close ally of Moscow) threw his full weight behind the secession efforts of the countrys Serb-dominated region of Republika Srpska one of the key reasons the U.S. slapped sanctions on him in January. Putin also insisted that Ukraine is part of Russia. Those fears became reality this week, when the Russian leader launched a broad invasion. Seeing Ukraine slowly but surely drifting out of the Kremlins control and aligning with the West, Putin may have felt that the moment is right to reassert his long-held claims to extend Russias power, Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the London-based think tank Chatham House, said before the invasion. If those borders have to go, well, then there is no obvious stopping point, says Hein Goemans, a professor of political science at the University of Rochester, pointing to the Soviet successor republics. But Russia and Ukraine have had a difficult relationship for centuries. War means war.. Kyiv became part of a new commonwealth that spanned todays Poland and Ukraine. Western leaders warned that an invasion was likely as he deployed some 150,000 troops around the countrys borders and issued security demands to the United States and NATO that were never likely to go anywhere. A second possible answer has to do with the role of domestic Russian politics, which the standard literature on conflict takes very seriously: Putin has seen what happened in some former Soviet successor republics and the former Yugoslavia, several of which experienced Color Revolutionsand democratized. The British ambassador in Ukraine Melinda Simmons has relocated from the embassy in Kyiv to Lviv in the countrys west due to fears about the risk posed to the capital from an invasion. Casey Michel is a journalist who covers financial transparency, illicit finance, and kleptocracy. The rankings evaluate 85 countries across 26 rankings drawn from a survey of more than 17,000 global citizens, measuring 73 dimensions that have the potential to drive trade, travel and investment and directly affect national economies. Russia has grown in both capability and confidence, and the combination seems to have convinced Putin that he is in the best possible position to reassert his demands, Giles said. One year on, the war in Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines. During the speech, Putin bemoaned the cultural downslide occurring in the United States and other countries throughout the West where Christianity is mocked and Gods design is inverted Rochester political scientist Hein Goemans, an expert on war termination, applies possible scenarios to Russias invasion of Ukraine. The notion that Ukraine is not a country in its own right, but a historical part of Russia, is 'deeply ingrained in the minds of many in the Russian leadership', according to Dr Bjrn Alexander Dben, Assistant Professor at the School of International and Public Affairs at the London School of Economics. All the relevant decisions have been taken. Im sure that the Biden administration is aware of these things. 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